Background & Key Players
In Tanzania, the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has governed since independence in 1961. President Samia Suluhu Hassan assumed office in 2021 after the death of her predecessor, John Magufuli. She now seeks her first full term in office.
The general election held on 29 October 2025—covering presidential, parliamentary, and local polls—served as a major test for Tanzania’s democracy. Observers closely watched the process, amid concerns about fairness and competition.
Pre-Election Landscape
The election campaign faced significant controversy. Prominent opposition figures, including Tundu Lissu, leader of Chadema, were detained, charged with serious offences, or disqualified from the race. Many critics argued that the electoral rules favored the ruling party. Opposition parties claimed they lacked meaningful space to campaign effectively.
Civil society and human rights groups warned about a climate of fear. They reported detentions, enforced disappearances, and restrictions on media and civil society activity. These developments raised serious doubts about the credibility of the election.
Election Day & Immediate Aftermath
On election day, tensions erupted into visible unrest. Protesters in Dar es Salaam and other cities claimed the election was a “sham” and that genuine competition had been blocked.
Incidents included burning buses and petrol stations, roadblocks, clashes with police and military, and attacks on polling stations. The government imposed a curfew in Dar es Salaam, deployed the military, and shut down internet access in several regions to restore order.
Early results showed President Samia Suluhu Hassan taking a commanding lead, with some areas reporting over 96% of votes in her favor. Opposition parties and observers argued that these results reflected limited competition rather than true endorsement.
Reasons Behind the Protests
Several factors triggered the protests:
- Limited competition: With major opposition parties barred or weakened, voters felt the election offered no real choice, fueling frustration.
- Repression and fear: Detentions, harassment, and disappearances of opposition figures deepened public anger and distrust.
- Youth disengagement: Many young voters abstained, claiming the election was predetermined. One student said he did not vote because “it was a one-horse race.”
- Government crackdown: Internet shutdowns, curfews, and the use of force appeared to some as a suppression of democracy, prompting further unrest.
- Foregone result: With CCM dominating from the outset, many believed the vote outcome was inevitable.
Consequences & Developments
The protests had widespread effects:
- Loss of life and injury: Human rights groups reported at least two deaths, though some observers suspect the toll may be higher.
- Heightened security: Curfews, military deployment, and internet restrictions created a tense environment.
- Business disruption: Protests disrupted daily life, transportation, and trade in major cities.
- International criticism: Human rights organizations and some foreign governments questioned the fairness of the election.
- Political legitimacy at risk: Although President Hassan leads in vote counts, unrest threatens her government’s perceived legitimacy.
Looking Ahead
Key questions will shape Tanzania’s near-term future:
- Acceptance of results: If large segments of the population reject the outcome, unrest may continue.
- Role of security forces: How the military manages protests—through restraint or force—will influence public reaction.
- Space for opposition: Whether media, civil society, and opposition voices can operate freely will affect Tanzania’s democratic trajectory.
- Economic and diplomatic impact: Prolonged unrest may harm foreign investment, donor confidence, and Tanzania’s regional standing.
- Calls for reform: Protesters demand electoral, constitutional, and institutional reforms. The government’s response will signal its willingness to address public concerns.
Regional Significance
Tanzania’s stability matters for East Africa. As a major economy in the region, unrest in Tanzania could affect neighboring countries.
- The election serves as a benchmark for how leaders in East Africa handle political competition.
- International observers monitor Tanzania to gauge the health of democracy in countries with long-standing ruling parties.
- Given Tanzania’s strategic trade corridors and role in regional integration, instability could have economic and security spillover effects.
Final Thoughts
President Hassan’s strong early lead has coincided with rising unrest, revealing a growing legitimacy crisis. While the numerical victory appears clear, the fairness and inclusivity of the process remain in question.
Simply controlling the protests is not enough. The government must address underlying grievances, including voice, fairness, and participation, to maintain long-term stability. Opposition parties and civil society face both opportunity and risk: the moment calls for reform but carries potential costs for confrontation.
The coming weeks will prove critical. How the government engages with the public, manages dissent, and responds to reform demands will determine whether Tanzania moves toward a deeper crisis or restores confidence in its democratic institutions.
