Business activity across major African economies showed mixed performance in October 2025. Nigeria posted the strongest expansion, while South Africa and Egypt deepened their contractions. This comes from the latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
Nigeria achieved a headline PMI of 54.0, supported by robust output, new business growth, easing inflation, and several new product launches. Uganda followed at 53.4, Kenya at 52.5, Ghana and Mozambique at 50.4, and Zambia at 50.8. Egypt and South Africa recorded below-50 readings of 49.2 and 48.8, signaling contraction.
Understanding PMI Readings
A PMI above 50 indicates improvement in private-sector conditions, while below 50 signals deterioration. The survey tracks trends in output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times, and inventory levels across key industries.
The World Bank’s Africa Pulse report highlighted that sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is gaining momentum, with GDP projected to expand from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, and averaging 4.4% between 2026 and 2027. Easing inflation across several economies supports broader economic stability in the region.
Country-Specific Insights
Nigeria: Output Growth Hits Six-Month High
Nigeria’s PMI rose to 54.0 from 53.4 in September, marking its 11th consecutive month of expansion. Manufacturing led growth. New products and increased demand lifted new orders. Selling price increases slowed to their second-softest level in over five years.
Uganda: Continued Expansion
Ugandan companies recorded their ninth month of growth, with a PMI of 53.4. Growth was broad-based, supported by stronger client demand and new acquisitions. Inflation fell to 3.4%, helping firms expand inventories and reduce backlogs.
Kenya: Six-Month High
Kenya’s PMI rose to 52.5 from 51.9. Firms used discounts and new products to stimulate demand. Output growth was the strongest since December 2021, while inflation remained subdued at 4.6%.
Zambia: Output Declines Despite Orders
Zambia’s PMI fell to 50.8 from 52.2. New orders increased for the seventh month, but output fell due to inconsistent energy supply. Input purchases rose at the fastest pace since 2017.
Mozambique: Fourth Month of Growth
Mozambique’s PMI rose to 50.4, supported by higher new business and employment. Construction and services drove output, while inflation edged up slightly to 4.93%.
Ghana: Return to Growth
Ghana’s PMI rose to 50.3 from 49.8. Output, new orders, employment, and inventories improved. Inflation fell to 8%, helping stabilize costs.
Egypt: Contraction Slows
Egypt’s PMI slightly rose to 49.2 from 48.8. Manufacturing supported output, but services, construction, and retail remained subdued. Urban inflation fell to 11.7%.
South Africa: Renewed Contraction
South Africa’s PMI slipped to 48.8 from 50.2. Output and sales declined at the fastest pace since March, driven by weaker domestic demand despite improved supplier delivery times and stable cost pressures.
Outlook for Africa
Nigeria’s leadership in private-sector growth reflects easing inflation and stabilizing exchange rates. Experts predict further recovery as policy support continues. Across the continent, uneven performance underscores the importance of targeted reforms and investment to sustain growth.
